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The revenge of the thwarted winners

Might the election result oblige us to re-think one of the more fundamental tenets of public engagement and consultation? It is very early days, of course, but consider what has just happened.

The referendum held in 2016 – for all its faults – was a gigantic consultation exercise. We asked the people a Yes/No question with experts on Referendums well aware that reducing complex issues to simple choices is a known hazard! Because the result was narrow and the process had not required a super-majority, Remainers felt able to challenge the result and campaign for second-thoughts. Had the Parliamentary drama unfolded differently, who knows how it might have ended? But the reality is that, by accident or design, a second referendum has now, in effect, been held and – despite winning less than 50% of the popular vote, the Leave tendency has won.

For those of us engaged in the process of consulting the public, however, there are interesting implications. We have constantly said ‘Consultation is not a vote’, and so it remains. But try this as a hypothesis for debate:-

  • Over the last three years, the debate moved away from the original issue towards the constitutional argument about whether or not the Referendum result should be honoured.
  • The abiding – and successful message was the sacrosanct nature of ‘winning’.
  • Flaws in the voting process appear not to have counted in the public mind. Winning is winning!
  • Might this thinking translate to public consultations? Can we continue to disregard the numbers game? Is the winning majority significant?
  • If substantial majorities reject proposals in a consultation, and if decision-makers appear to disregard such expressions of opinion, will the public exert its ‘revenge’ at a later date?
  • Will consultors, therefore, need to pay more attention to the numbers participating in a consultation and take steps to ensure that both sides of an argument are better represented?

Maybe the most likely consequence is that organisations with controversial proposals will need to take particular care in the period after a consultation. In addition to following the Gunning Principle of ‘conscientious consideration,’ they may be wise to respect those who have opposed them. Having witnessed the anger of those who, in the BREXIT context have felt thwarted – even cheated, those who want to carry communities with them may need to look for confidence-building ideas and mitigations that can temper consultee dissatisfaction.

Much to consider!

 

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