Winner takes all …  

Public consultations and the numbers game

For years, there has been an argument as to how much reliance to place on the statistical results of a pubic consultation. With respondent rates hovering at about 1% for most decisions affecting local public services, it has become customary to dismiss the breakdown of those in favour or against proposals on the grounds that it is normally only the opponents to public bodies’ proposals who bother to take part. ‘Never mind,’ we say, ‘we now know their opinions, the arguments they advance, and maybe the strength of feeling in the local community. Deal with as many of these as you can, then take your decision.’

Occasionally, a more sophisticated approach is adopted. In parallel with a traditional public consultation, the consultor organises an opinion survey of a stratified sample. This will provide a much truer picture of the public mind, and decision-makers can balance this against the views of those who were motivated to participate in the consultation itself. Experience shows that vociferous campaigns to oppose changes to NHS, Council or even Police services, enjoy somewhat less support if the view of non-respondents are measured. Such exercises often reveal astonishing levels of apathy, generally filling community activists with sheer horror!