News & Insights

Election 2024 – the Post-Election Consultation Forecast

A couple of weeks ago, Rhion Jones considered how the party manifestos would stack up were they consultation documents, rather than manifestos. As we’re now approaching the end of the campaign, and the poll numbers are doing little more than lethargically twitching round a largely unchanging central point, I thought it might be time to put on my Mystic Meg haircut, grab my pointy weatherman stick and dress in my finest Sir John Curtice cosplay to imagine what the state of consultation might be like when we wake up on Friday morning (or, if you’re like me, and staying up all night to watch the results coming in, go to sleep on Friday morning).

To set the base-level conditions, we shall imagine that Labour have been returned with a stonking great majority, Sir Keir has walked into Downing Street, and the mood in Conservative Party HQ has tumbled to just below ‘mildly despondent’. Whilst the first few weeks will be taken up with familiarisation and new ministers settling into their departments, the wheels will already be in motion to start taking the legacy decisions left over from the last administration. But with Keir’s promise of ‘change’ still ringing in the ears, where might we start to see that change coming?

One of the big areas is likely to be in planning. One of the big Labour pledges during the campaign has been to get the planning system moving. Whilst largely this focuses on the promotion of housebuilding, new towns and infrastructure support to promote the clean energy agenda will also require extensive work to reform the planning system. Reforming planning however is likely to have impacts on consultation, particularly as the party has promised to get tough on NIMBYs. How do you do this without reforming consultations in planning? If Labour wants to go big on wind power, they’ll have to overturn the ban on onshore wind development, and whilst the numbers show that the public support this, it’ll take planning reform to stop local authorities being frightened off by a few loud angry voices.

Labour have also promised significant movement in the institutional structures that govern. There’s a promised consultation on the future of the House of Lords, along with reforms to the House to force retirement at 80, a decision which may not go entirely unchallenged; the pledge to give 16–17-year-olds the right to vote, ever controversial; and possibly the biggest challenge of all- restoring ethics and integrity to Westminster. Whilst this last point sounds like a simple fix, part of this must be making people feel that this has happened, and that the public’s view of what they expect of their MPs has been taken into account. Might we see a consultation on this?

Though Labour has, possibly advisedly, abandoned the ‘levelling up’ terminology so beloved of a previous Prime Minister, there is a clear intent throughout their manifesto to work more for decentralisation- though it’s less clear how they intend to go about this. More consultation fodder? Perhaps, but one of the bigger challenges that a new Labour government might have is avoiding consultation fatigue, and trying to overcome any lingering public feeling that consultation is merely a way of trying to palm off difficult decisions on others- or avoid making them at all.

The actions of the Government however are of course only part of the equation- equally important will be the actions of the opposition and if, as looks likely, we’re going to have a much smaller and more fragmented opposition, then consultation could prove a useful tool for them. If three different opposition parties are shouting their own views on matter X, then that’s one thing, and it’s easy for the Government to claim that there is no unity on an alternative position to the one they’re pursuing. If three different opposition parties are shouting that they want a consultation on matter X, that’s something quite different, and the Government might be more inclined to make concessions on such a consultation. A useful tool indeed, albeit a double-edged one as it feeds an ‘indecisiveness’ narrative, which Starmer will be keen to avoid.

The entire election campaign has been a very interesting exercise. It feels seismic, but has been largely quite boring (unless you’re Ed Davey, who’s been having a spiffing time!). Consultation has also featured less in it that we might usually expect- it’s not even really been there as a placeholder response for those policy positions which the parties haven’t got positions on. Perhaps this is a result of a couple of years where government decision-making has been paralysed by internecine conflict and other challenges, a nascent desire to look like the answers are already there, they don’t need pursuing? Perhaps it’s fatigue showing? Either way, the pause won’t last long. At the time of writing, we have three days to wait – we say bring it on! 


To support our members through the election period, we are launching an Election Hub at 9am on Monday 8th July in your members’ area. This hub will include a results reaction video from tCI Associates, helpful resources, access to member forums, and more. Click here to keep an eye out. For immediate support, please get in touch.


Article by Stephen Hill

Stephen was formally the Institute’s Legal and Parliamentary Officer, though now spends most of his time playing with rockets and satellites. He retains a keen interest in issues of democracy and public engagement however and provides independent commentary on consultation current affairs and legal challenges.

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