Making the weather - Influencing the climate of opinion may be easier than improving the UK’s weather!

A winter of storms has wrought havoc in many communities and even those of us not directly affected are starting to get accustomed to the high winds and endless rain. No wonder the weather is a constant topic of conversation, if only to discuss the cause of this unprecedented deluge.

With something as widespread as this, it tends to dominate not only the media, but also the public mind-space. By that, we mean that it creeps into the sub-conscious and starts to influence the way people react to a host of issues. Experienced parliamentarians claim they can always detect when a Government irretrievably loses its grip; there is something in the air. For an excellent account of such a period, read the last instalment of Chris Mullin’s highly regarded diaries. It’s called Decline and Fall, and its description of the Gordon Brown administration perfectly illustrates what happens when the mood music changes.

All this is relevant when public bodies and others start thinking about a major programme of public engagement and consultation. What assumptions would we make about the state of public opinion? What is going on in the community that may be affected? To use a modern parallel, “What programmes are running in background?”

It is one thing to seek support and consult stakeholders when the thrust of developments is broadly in tune with the prevailing mood. It is quite another if one is going against the grain of current thought. That is why, ironically in the last few years it may well have been easier to consult the public about service reductions and rationalisations than about whether to build a new railway line or a new airport. The public mood accepts, with misgivings that at a time of austerity, expenditure may have to be cut, and that unpopular changes to services may (though not necessarily have to) be necessary. Building new infrastructure – no matter how strong the business case - somehow struggles to garner support; it feels suspect somehow.

This is why now may be a challenging moment for the Coalition Government. The more it highlights improved economic news, the more it is influencing that background assumption that conditions the public response to new initiatives. Commentators are suggesting that its plans to make further reductions to Welfare spending may run into trouble. Others predict that the next round of re-configurations in the NHS or further cuts in Council services may encounter more opposition.

Experience shows that wise consultors take time and trouble to prepare the ground in advance. Three years ago, DEFRA failed to do this with its proposed sell-off of the Forestry estate. The Prime Minister was forced to concede that “we did not do a good enough job of pitch-rolling”

and the consequent withdrawal of the proposals mid-consultation led to the Minister, Caroline Spellman losing her job.

In recent months some of the Institute’s training courses have been amended to emphasise even more strongly the importance of pre-consultation. This is not just to strengthen options development and prepare robust methods of holding a dialogue. It is also to help define the scope of the debate. This is best done by ensuring the practical involvement of key stakeholders. They are the best bellweather we can possibly find, and although their view will of course reflect their own interests and may be prone to exaggeration in any direction, it is still one of the best indicators that can tell us the sentiment of a community we are about to consult.

Part of the attraction of co-production is the chance to hear at first-hand the approach that informed parties take to tackling the same problems as the incumbent management. As a methodology, it is often neither better nor worse – just different. And whilst it may cost more and take time, pre-consultation involvement is one way of avoiding criticism that proposals are either not practicable, or fail to take account of the environment in which they will be introduced.

We could think of them perhaps as flood defences. Costly investment right up front, and time-consuming to erect and try out, but providing relief when the occasion arises.

Humans are not yet able to ‘make the weather’ though our actions have clearly contributed to the weather we experience. But the analogy with underlying public sentiment is a reasonable one and before Institute members and others set sail their consultation vessels on the public and stakeholder ocean, it may be as well to understand the prevailing wind, to study the cross-currents of opinion and pay heed to the forecast … for we know how often it changes!

Okay it may not be the best analogy after all. But we wish everyone a drier week!

TRIGGER POINTS

• How well does your organisation understand the external environment? Is it sensitive to public mood swings?
• Community sentiment will be on the agenda at Old Trafford Manchester on 27th February. The event is called The Challenge of Community Engagement. Karen Fourie has all the details (01767 318350) Also see https://www.consultationinstitute.org/#/270214/4581968303
• Infrastructure projects may well lead to contentious consultations. Why not book now for Public Engagement and the Growth Agenda – our Seminar/Workshop on 25th June in London
• The Forestry story is included as one of 10 case studies in the Institute’s Decade of Dialogue publication (2013), available from the Centre of Excellence; call 01767 318350
• If you enjoyed this Topic, you may also enjoy:-
• – Topic 240 Birth of an Option
• – Topic 196 The road to consultation
• – Topic 135 Who’s in the Room

This is the 254th Tuesday Topic; a full list of subjects covered is available for Institute members and is a valuable resource covering so many aspects of consultation and engagement