Knowing what’s true … - The EU referendum highlights robust arguments about the ‘facts’ of the situation – implications for consultation professionals.

A few years ago, IPSOS-MORI started publishing comparisons between various statistics of social or political significance and people’s perceptions of the same numbers; they repeated the exercise in many countries. In Britain, as in other countries, there are substantial differences, and the research – called The Perils of Perception is frequently cited by those who are wary of direct participation politics.

For example,

• Ageing population: we think the British population is much older than it actually is – the average estimate is that 37% of the population are 65+, when it is in fact only 17%.

• On Teenage pregnancy: the British think one in six (16%) of all teenage girls aged 15-19 give birth each year, when the actual figure is only 3%.
• On Religion: we hugely over-estimate the proportion of Muslims in Britain – we think one in five British people are Muslims (21%) when the actual figure is 5% (one in twenty). In contrast, we underestimate the proportion of Christians - we think 39% of the country identify themselves as Christian compared with the actual figure of 59%.
• On Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

Internationally, we compare reasonably well; on immigration, the citizens of both Italy and the United States have a much more unrealistic perception, imagining far more immigrants than are in fact present in their countries. One wonders what Donald Trump thinks!

Normally, however, discrepancies between perceptions and reality don’t much matter. Right in the middle of a fiercely-fought Referendum, with studio audiences demanding “Tell us the facts”, maybe it does. According to The Independent, research by the same pollster says British public wrong about nearly everything and quotes that its structured survey sample showed our fellow-citizens on average believe that 10.5 million EU immigrants live in the UK; the real figure is 3.5 millions! The question is whether this swings the vote; if people knew the truth, would it change their minds?

The evidence suggests that people believe what they want to believe. In 2014, IPSOS-MORI asked its respondents why they thought their estimate of immigrant numbers was so much higher than reality. Predictably, the influence of the media was a factor, but far more people simply did not trust official figures. They preferred to rely on their own personal experiences or the advice of trusted colleagues or family members. Indeed, a cartoon currently appearing on Facebook sums it all up neatly.

It is too much to claim that this applies to everybody. Some people will clearly be susceptible to information and analysis, and this may explain the rise of Fact-checking websites. Five years ago an American journalist described what he saw as the ‘fact-checking explosion’, and rightly predicted it would have a major impact both on politics and the media. No serious politician now ventures onto Question Time or other broadcast programmes without being certain that facts and figures used in his or her answers will withstand scrutiny. There are many such services, and not all of them are independent. In the UK, Full Fact has acquired a formidable reputation and is beginning to prove better than any Press regulator at exposing the more obvious lies, half-truths or dodgy dossiers.

So how relevant may this be to those working in pubic consultation and engagement? Here are four points to ponder:

1. Factual inaccuracies in consultation papers are now more likely to be detected, and consultor organisations must respond to genuine errors by publishing corrections.
2. Having an outside, independent organisation to read and test drafts of important consultation documentation can help reduce errors or identify inadequately substantiated assertions.
3. Serious inaccuracies could mislead consultees and can form the basis for a legal challenge.
4. Providing consultees with factual evidence will necessarily persuade diehard opponents to change their minds, but it may influence key stakeholders, politicians and senior officials of public bodies.

Although it is far from being the primary role of a consultation, the educational function is important. Having an informed debate is always a challenge unless it is grounded on a common set of facts. That is why the EU referendum is frustrating for so many people – because too many of the fundamental facts are hotly disputed. In many ways our current national debate is a classic case study in how not to hold a consultation.

And the next Topic – the 300th – may provide us with an opportunity to examine whether that indeed was what occurred.

Trigger point

• The 2014 study by IPSOS-MORI is available on its website – see https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
• The Full Fact website is full of interesting insights https://fullfact.org
• Has your organisation a suitable individual/facility to act as fact-checker before consultation papers are published?
• Providing accurate information is important in local government, and becomes mpre challenging with planned devolution.
• The Institute is available to undertake a Quality Assurance of all contentious public consultations.

This is the 299th Tuesday Topic; a full list of subjects covered is available for Institute members and is a valuable resource covering so many aspects of consultation and engagement